The outlook for tourism in Thailand is so deep in the doldrums that even the so-called White Lotus effect — a temporary boost in Western visitors inspired by the latest season of the hit TV show — hasn’t been enough to offset a slump in arrivals from neighbouring countries.
Foreign arrivals to Thailand dropped for the fourth straight month in May, slipping 14% year-on-year to 2.6 million, government data show. That’s the country’s longest streak of declines since 2021, when the Covid pandemic closed international borders.
The biggest drop came from travellers from other Asian countries, whose citizens make up the vast majority of tourists to Thailand. Regional arrivals are down nearly 11% this year through May, compared to the same period in 2024.
Visits by Chinese tourists, who make up the largest group by nationality, have plummeted by close to 33% — nearly 1 million fewer arrivals so far this year versus 2024.
The plunge heading into the summer holiday period and beyond is causing consternation in Thailand, where tourism makes up about 12% of gross domestic product. It’s being fuelled by lingering concerns about safety, with fears about the growing presence of scam centres around the Myanmar border spooking visitors from China.
Thailand has also contended in recent months contended with an earthquake that resulted in of a destroyed Bangkok skyscraper being beamed around the world, the rising popularity of Japan and China as regional tourism destinations, and a strong baht that has made the country less of a value destination.
“We have lost a lot tourists to other competing countries in Asia because we didn’t tackle the negative images seriously,” said Ratchaporn Poolsawadee, vice-president of the Tourism Council of Thailand. “Thailand’s tourism is resilient, but this may take months to rebound.”
Arrivals from China have fallen 33% so far this year after a scam gang kidnapped Chinese actor Wang Xing near the Thai border in January. Wang’s ordeal went viral in the mainland, prompting thousands of cancellations as mainland tourists opted for regional competitors including Japan and Singapore that they perceive as safer.
Visits from Malaysia, Thailand’s second biggest source of arrivals, dropped as much as 17% during the same period. Travel warnings from Hong Kong, the UK and Australia have cited concerns related to earthquakes and safety.
Flight bookings for the height of summer, June to August, show a 15% decline in Chinese arrivals compared to a year ago, according to data from China Trading Desk, which tracks the mainland tourism market.
Hotel occupancy is forecast to fall to 52% in May from 63% the month before, driven largely by the drop from China, according to a survey of nearly 140 members of the Thai Hotel Association. Daily room rates are expected to decline in the second quarter as hotels slash prices to compete for guests.
The self-branded “Land of Smiles” has publicised efforts to shut down some scam compounds and arrests following Wang’s kidnapping. The efforts come as concerns mount in the tourism industry that Thailand will miss its goal of attracting more than 39 million visitors this year, accounting for about $68 billion in tourist spending.
To avoid that, industry officials are calling for further action to reassure would-be visitors, including more promotion to non-Chinese markets.
US and European markets healthy
If there is one bright spot, The White Lotus, whose third season featured the islands of Samui and Phuket, is attracting more vacationers from the US and Europe. The show — which follows the lives of guests and staff at an ultra luxury resort — was filmed at a Four Seasons in Koh Samui and at Anantara resorts.
Tourists from the US have spiked 12% this year through May to more than 625,000, and arrivals from Europe have jumped nearly 18% to more than 3 million in the same period, government data show.
Still, the country could need more than a TV show to stop Asian tourists — who see the setting of The White Lotus as far less exotic — from heading elsewhere.
“Thailand was hit with a string of bad news events,” said Thienprasit Chaiyapatranun, president of the Thai Hotels Association, whose members include the biggest hoteliers in the country.
“So now we have travellers concerned about safety and security. The government should act right now and do a lot more to reassure and attract visitors.”
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