Gold prices could soar to US$3,700 an ounce later this year, from around $3,300 now, if the US and China fail to reach an agreement on trade and tariffs, says local trader YLG Group.
Pawan Nawawattanasub, chief executive of YLG, said Thailand has the potential to become a gold export hub due to its strategic location.
Gold continues to be a compelling safe-haven asset amid ongoing global uncertainties, she told an investment forum hosted by the Thai newspaper Daily News.
The current resistance level for gold is $3,500 an ounce, but the price could hit $3,700 depending on the outcome of China-US trade talks over the next 90 days, said Ms Pawan.
YLG recommends a buy-in range of $3,100-3,200 an ounce, viewing it as an attractive entry point for investors, she said.
"Credit must be given to President Donald Trump, whose policies have driven gold to unprecedented volatility," said Ms Pawan.
"I've never seen gold swings of $100 in a single day. Previously, the price jumped $200 at most in an entire week. Now the price is highly sensitive, not only to US politics, but also to geopolitical conflicts."
She said gold has been on a sharp upward trajectory in recent years, with prices averaging 20% annual growth over the past three years. From January to March 2025, gold surged 26% from $2,600 per ounce, peaking at $3,500.
Ms Pawan said renewed conflicts between China and the US, particularly over import tariffs and semiconductor trade, could cause prices to spike further.
"Gold prices already swing by $100 in a single session. For short-term traders, the volatility presents a significant opportunity," she said, adding the daily gold trade volume on Thailand's state-backed Pao Tang mobile app now exceeds 60,000 transactions.
Thailand remains a stronghold for gold demand, with 49% of Thais investing in the metal, according to the World Gold Council. The precious metal continues to hold cultural significance, and is frequently gifted to mark births, celebrations and milestones.
"Gold has been part of Thai society for more than 40 years and is still regarded as a stable store of value, including as a hedge against dollar volatility," said Ms Pawan, adding Thailand's domestic gold market is valued at 7 trillion baht.
China and India lead gold purchases at around 1,000 tonnes annually each. Thailand averages 150 tonnes annually, third in Southeast Asia measured per person.
"With its prime location in a flourishing trade corridor, Thailand can potentially emerge as a key gold export hub to several neighbouring countries," she said.