The open bickering between the ruling Pheu Thai Party and its largest coalition partner, Bhumjaithai, has prompted an opposition party to go on the defensive, according to observers.
Since forming the coalition more than two years ago, Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai have never been through a rougher patch, relationship-wise.
The two parties have worked out their occasional differences over the years; from Bhumjaithai initiating cannabis legalisation, which Pheu Thai tried unsuccessfully to reverse during Srettha Thavisin's administration; the double majority rule in the referendum law, which Pheu Thai wanted to change to a single majority requirement, but Bhumjaithai was pressing to retain; to the latest casino legalisation bill, which Pheu Thai is pushing hard, but which has run into opposition from Bhumjaithai.
The squabbling had put the two parties' relationship to the test, as had the allegations of land encroachments by leaders of the two parties. The observers said the allegations were rumoured to have been dug up by elements connected to the two parties in a punch-trading move to keep either one from gaining more political bargaining power over the other.
Despite both parties playing down the love-hate relationship between them, speculation among pundits that the government, in its current form, may not serve out its four-year term has intensified.
Speculation was rife that Bhumjaithai, with 70 MPs to its name, was about to be thrown out of the coalition. However, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has denied the party will be shown the door, at least for now.
The observers said it remains to be seen whether Ms Paetongtarn's assurance will hold water as her father, former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, wields considerable influence in Pheu Thai and is accused of being the string puller.
Many political experts have conjured up a scenario in which Bhumjaithai is replaced as a coalition partner by the 150-MP main opposition People's Party (PP).
If the two largest parties were to join forces, the coalition would command a comfortable majority. A Pheu Thai-PP alliance could even afford to purge the ultra-conservative United Thai Nation Party with 36 seats and the 25-MP Democrat Party.
However, the experts agreed that the possibility of the PP being enthused by the prospect of joining Pheu Thai and playing second fiddle is remote, considering there are barely two years left before the next general election.
The PP also has every reason to believe it should remain in opposition and retain the upper hand over Pheu Thai, which is under increasing pressure over its failure to stem an economic downturn impacting key sectors, including agriculture, where farmers of major crops are suffering from low prices.
The PP, like its predecessor, the Move Forward Party, has never governed. The absence of a blemished record could be the PP's ticket to a decisive victory in the next general election as many voters are fed up with wheeling and dealing politics and may be tempted to vote for a party which can promise a clean slate, according to the experts.
Talk of Bhumjaithai and the PP being out of the mix has fuelled speculation that the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP), now in the opposition, may be brought back into the government.
However, the PPRP, having been booted out of the Pheu Thai-led coalition at the end of Srettha Thavisin's administration, is likely seen as unforgivable by the party led by former deputy prime minister Gen Prawit Wongsuwon.
The PPRP leadership felt the party had been double-crossed by a faction controlled by former PPRP secretary-general Captain Thamanat Prompow, who, along with more than 20 MPs, split from the party over a conflict with Gen Prawit. The Thamanat group's departure split the PPRP down the middle, leaving it with just 20 MPs.
Capt Thamanat's group later defected to the Kla Dharma Party, which Pheu Thai subsequently picked as a coalition partner while purging PPRP.
The bitterness evidently still lingers as deputy PPRP leader Chaiwut Thanakamanusorn recently declared the PPRP reuniting with Pheu Thai was out of the question.
"Not a single thought has crossed our minds about kissing and making up with the government.
"Our stance has never been clearer: We don't agree with the casino [entertainment complex legalisation]," he said, adding the government has always been ill-prepared in running the country, and the highly controversial casino bill being pushed is destined to break it.
"When a boat is about to sink, it would be insane to even think about hopping on board.
"The Pheu Thai Party has never thought to weigh the pros and cons [of the proposed casino project]. All it was interested in was the hundreds of billions of baht the project stood to generate," Mr Chaiwut said.
It's more than just Thaksin
The Medical Council of Thailand's (MCT) ruling on the controversy surrounding former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's hospital detention is not just about one man's fate.
Paetongtarn: May face fallout threat
It is about the very survival of the Pheu Thai-led government and Thaksin's daughter, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, according to observers.
Recently, the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions ordered an inquiry into Thaksin's detention at the Police General Hospital (PGH) due to concerns that the prison sentence may not have been adequately enforced.
A few days later, the MCT announced disciplinary action against three doctors involved in the former premier's transfer from Bangkok Remand Prison and subsequent six-month hospital stay.
One was given a formal warning, while the other two had their medical licences suspended for providing inaccurate medical information and documents.
In light of the MCT's findings, speculation has gone wild that Thaksin may face imprisonment. If that is the case, it would adversely affect the coalition government, especially Ms Paetongtarn's ability to govern.
Critics have long accused Ms Paetongtarn, Thaksin's youngest daughter, who took office in September last year, of lacking independence and requiring "guidance" from her father, if not being his puppet.
Olarn Thinbangtieo, a political science lecturer at Burapha University, told the Bangkok Post that if Thaksin is put behind bars, the Paetongtarn administration will be dead in the water.
The government is now under fire for diverting funds intended for debt repayment to finance the digital wallet scheme, and Thaksin's imprisonment could derail Ms Paetongtarn's political career.
Mr Olarn said this scenario may prompt Thaksin to flee again and could spell doom for the Pheu Thai Party and crush the chances of fugitive former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra returning home. According to Thaksin, he expected his sister, in self-exile abroad, to return and celebrate the Songkran festival in Thailand this year.
Yingluck fled the country in 2017 just before the Supreme Court sentenced her to five years in jail for failing to stop fake and corruption-plagued government-to-government rice sales.
Mr Olarn pointed out that in such a scenario, Ms Paetongtarn may also go down with Thaksin and face charges for allegedly lying or concealing her father's condition.
According to the analyst, the Supreme Court's inquiry into Thaksin's prolonged stay is widely seen as a crucial opportunity to restore public trust in a justice system many see as compromised.
Thaksin served his jail term in the premium ward on the 14th floor of the PGH until he was granted parole in February last year. When he was discharged, he was spotted wearing a neck collar. But days later, however, he appeared fit with no physical signs he had just recovered from life-threatening sicknesses.
Thaksin's prolonged stay has raised questions as to whether the prison sentence imposed on him had truly been enforced by the DoC.
However, the analyst acknowledged the possibility that Thaksin could be detained at his home under Department of Corrections (DoC) regulations approved during the Prayut Chan-o-cha administration.
As the alleged de facto Pheu Thai leader, believed to be tasked with leading a campaign to fend off the progressive People's Party -- referred to as the "orange camp" -- Thaksin has a chance to get away, Mr Olarn noted.
"The conservatives need him to counter the orange camp. The Bhumjaithai Party has yet to win the hearts of the middle class. As long as they can't find anyone who is as highly respected and credible as Gen Prayut, who stayed in power for nine years, Thaksin will be their best choice," he said.
According to Mr Olarn, the government is in a state of paralysis due to its failure to resolve economic problems, border security issues, the southern insurgency, and internal conflicts within the coalition.
He said Pheu Thai is trying to regain its image as a defender of democracy by pursuing a probe into alleged vote rigging in last year's Senate election. However, this move has strained ties with Bhumjaithai.
Mr Olarn said the power struggle between the two parties is a high-stakes one, and both will make bargains to protect their own interests.
Under these circumstances, there are growing concerns that some elements might see a chance to reset politics, a reference to a power seizure, he said.
"While most people don't want one [a power seizure], a certain group of people may be contemplating it. What we're seeing are early signs of a dead-end situation," said the analyst.