Growing tensions between the ruling Pheu Thai Party and its coalition partner the Bhumjaithai Party have raised fresh concerns about the stability of the government and questions if the administration will last its full term.
The "love-hate" alliance has become increasingly fragile after the blue party faced complaints seeking its dissolution over its role in alleged vote-fixing in the 2024 Senate election.
Another source of friction is the upcoming scrutiny of the budget bill for the 2026 fiscal year as rumours have spread that Bhumjaithai may not support the bill -- a move that could lead to a House dissolution.
Although key figures from both parties have denied serious conflicts, news reports have highlighted a fragile alliance between them.
Some analysts believe the friction between Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai may be just a political game, but they warn about dire consequences, especially at a time when the government faces pressing issues both domestically and internationally.
The relationship between Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai is seen as crucial to the government's fate. If they can find common ground, it will help stabilise the coalition. Otherwise, rifts could trigger major changes in the political scene.
Staying together is tough
A source in Bhumjaithai downplayed reports of conflicts between the two parties, saying that despite media reports, cooperation within the government remains largely smooth.
However, the thorny issues lie outside the government, where some elements may be trying to undercut Bhumjaithai's influence or eyeing a greater share of cabinet seats, said the source.
"The party wants to focus on working but we can't deny [there is a power struggle]," the source said.
In response to reports that Pheu Thai wants the interior ministerial post now held by Bhumjaithai, the source said the party picked the ministries first and told Bhumjaithai that the Public Health Ministry and the Transport Ministry were off-limits.
Bhumjaithai ended up with the Interior Ministry and the Education Ministry, the source said while dismissing the idea of swapping the interior portfolio for public health.
"We're open to talks, but if they want to trade [the interior ministry post] for public health, that's not going to work... But there's a possibility if the transport portfolio is on the table. If you want to swap ministries, it should be Grade A for Grade A. If not, this coalition won't last," the source said.
The Pheu Thai-Bhumjaithai relationship was "love-hate" but sources say it's one where Pheu Thai has already concluded that Bhumjaithai is still the better partner when compared with smaller parties.
If Bhumjaithai is dropped from the coalition government, Pheu Thai will have to rely on smaller parties, each with fewer than 10 seats, which is not stable.
On the Senate vote-fixing allegations, the source questioned the legal basis of the case and denied any interference by the party during the election.
Regarding other controversial issues such as the casino-entertainment complex project, several camps are opposed to it, not just the party's so-called blue faction of senators.
"The Senate doesn't have much power, except in approving appointments of members of the public independent bodies."
Pheu Thai's options
Meanwhile, a source from Pheu Thai said the legal process over the alleged vote-fixing in the Senate election and the dissolution of Bhumjaithai should be allowed to take its course.
The legal process is expected to take some time before it is finalised, so it is premature to speculate about the outcome.
The source admitted Pheu Thai MPs want the interior ministerial post and questioned whether the two parties can stick together for the rest of this parliamentary term.
He pointed out the Klatham Party, another coalition member, is on a campaign to lure MPs from other parties to join its ranks.
"If they can reach an agreement, the coalition will hold. Pheu Thai MPs absolutely want the interior ministry because it is a strategic agency. If the party breaks up with Bhumjaithai over this, I believe the government can carry on," the source said.
Legal heat
Thanaporn Sriyakul, director of the Political and Public Policy Analysis Institute, described the probes into the alleged fraud in the Senate election by the Department of Special Investigation and the Election Commission (EC) as a "no-holds-barred" operation.
He said this is evident from the summonses issued to senior figures of a political party, which suggests potential party involvement and possibly a move towards party dissolution.
He noted that if party executives are summonsed by the EC and the Office of the Attorney-General as part of a probe into potential party dissolution, it suggests that the process is being fast-tracked.
Mr Thanaporn also urged Kusumalwati Sirikomut, a senatorial candidate on the reserve list who asked the EC to seek the dissolution of Bhumjaithai over its role in the alleged vote-fixing, to present the evidence to the public.
At the same time, the analyst called on Bhumjaithai to defend itself and not to make any backroom deals with the petitioner.
Ms Kusumalwati's political background has made the case politically charged. She was elected as member of parliament in 2001 and 2005 under the now-dissolved Thai Rak Thai Party and won a third term in 2011 on the Pheu Thai Party ticket.
Mr Thanaporn said he does not believe the election scandal will affect the scrutiny of the 2026 fiscal budget bill, but it may hit the controversial Entertainment Complex Bill and could prompt the Senate to speed up the appointment of members to independent bodies.
Thanaporn: Casino bill may take a hit
Burden of proof
Assoc Prof Jade Donavanik, a legal expert, said that while any small legal technicality can be used to undermine political rivals, dissolving a party is not a simple task because there must be solid evidence against the party.
"Even if an MP is found guilty of meddling in the Senate election, it's not easy to tie that back to the party's executive board or the entire party... unless it's clearly shown that the leadership is complicit or fails to intervene despite warnings," he said.
When asked about reports of pre-signed resignation letters of senators allegedly involved in the scandal, he said those documents are not contracts and cannot be used to force any who signed to step down.
Assoc Prof Jade said he believes that there was collusion in the Senate election but it was not limited to one political party or camp. "Some senators may be disqualified as a result of the investigation, but the number will not be high.
"Everyone had a hand in it, and it is just a matter of who got caught. That's why some are now crying foul... they lost," he said.
He also criticised the EC for not taking action when complaints surfaced during the first stage of the election. He likened the case to a sports competition where someone asked for a replay when suspecting a foul. "If a replay is asked early in the game, it will work. But if the game is already over, there's not much to it. Let's hope someone steps forward as a witness and help catch the wrongdoers," Assoc Prof Jade said.
Jade: 'Everyone had a hand in it'